[ACT-R-users] [Fwd: [Jdm-society] Choice prediction competitions]

[Cleotilde Gonzalez]

this might be of interest to some, 

Coty
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---------------------------- Original Message ----------------------------
Subject: [Jdm-society] Choice prediction competitions
From:    "Ido Erev" <ierev at hbs.edu>
Date:    Thu, April 17, 2008 12:48 pm
To:      jdm-society at mail.sjdm.org
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Dear all.

 

We write to invite you to participate in the three choice prediction
competitions.

 

The exact rules of the competitions are described on the competition website
<http://tx.technion.ac.il/~eyalert/Comp.html> ,
(http://tx.technion.ac.il/~eyalert/Comp.html)

 

The basic task in all three competitions is to predict choice between a safe
prospect and a two-outcome gamble.  Each competition will focus on a
distinct experimental condition.  The conditions are:

 

1.	One shot decisions under risk (like the situation examined by
Kahneman & Tversky, 1979)
2.	One shot decisions from experience (as in Hertwig et al., 2004)
3.	Repeated decisions from experience (as in Barron & Erev, 2003)

 

We ran a large "estimation study" with randomly selected problems (from the
space of problems described in the site) under each of these conditions.
The data are presented on the competition website.  The basic task in the
competition is to predict choice behavior in a second study (the
"competition study") that will examine a different set of problems to be
selected randomly from the same space of problems.  Thus, we use the
generalization criterion methodology (see Busemeyer and Wang, 2000).

 

To participate you will have to send us a computer program (in SAS, Visual
Basic or MatLab) that reads the parameters of the choice problems and
derives a prediction as an output. The prediction is a probability that the
risky option will be chosen. In each competition, the program that minimizes
Mean Squared Error between the predictions and observed subject outcomes
over the randomly chosen problems will win.

 

Ido will present the basic idea of the competition and will be happy to
answer questions in the upcoming BDRM conference
<http://management.ucsd.edu/events/bdrm/>  (April 25-26 in San Diego), and
in the Conference on the Method
<http://cess.nyu.edu/Conference-April-27-28-2008/index.html>  of Modern
Experimental Economics (April 27-28 in New York).

 

The winners will be invited to be co-authors of a paper that summarizes the
results (and will be submitted to the special issue of J of Behavioral
Decision Making on Decisions from Experience).  In addition the winner will
be invited speakers in a special workshop that will be conducted in Israel
in December 2008 (expenses up to $2000 per winner will be covered). 

 

Best, Ido Erev, Eyal Ert and Al Roth

 

 

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