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<p class=MsoNormal style='text-autospace:none'><font size=3
face="Times New Roman"><span style='font-size:12.0pt'>Dear all.<o:p></o:p></span></font></p>
<p class=MsoNormal style='text-autospace:none'><font size=3
face="Times New Roman"><span style='font-size:12.0pt'><o:p> </o:p></span></font></p>
<p class=MsoNormal style='text-autospace:none'><font size=3
face="Times New Roman"><span style='font-size:12.0pt'>We write to invite you to
participate in the three choice prediction competitions.<o:p></o:p></span></font></p>
<p class=MsoNormal style='text-autospace:none'><font size=3
face="Times New Roman"><span style='font-size:12.0pt'><o:p> </o:p></span></font></p>
<p class=MsoNormal style='text-autospace:none'><font size=3
face="Times New Roman"><span style='font-size:12.0pt'>The exact rules of the
competitions are described on the <a
href="http://tx.technion.ac.il/~eyalert/Comp.html">competition website</a>, (http://tx.technion.ac.il/~eyalert/Comp.html)<o:p></o:p></span></font></p>
<p class=MsoNormal style='text-autospace:none'><font size=3
face="Times New Roman"><span style='font-size:12.0pt'><o:p> </o:p></span></font></p>
<p class=MsoNormal style='text-autospace:none'><font size=3
face="Times New Roman"><span style='font-size:12.0pt'>The basic task in all
three competitions is to predict choice between a safe prospect and a
two-outcome gamble. Each competition will focus on a distinct experimental
condition. The conditions are:<o:p></o:p></span></font></p>
<p class=MsoNormal style='text-autospace:none'><font size=3
face="Times New Roman"><span style='font-size:12.0pt'><o:p> </o:p></span></font></p>
<ol style='margin-top:0in' start=1 type=1>
<li class=MsoNormal style='mso-list:l0 level1 lfo1;text-autospace:none'><font
size=3 face="Times New Roman"><span style='font-size:12.0pt'>One shot
decisions under risk (like the situation examined by Kahneman &
Tversky, 1979)<o:p></o:p></span></font></li>
<li class=MsoNormal style='mso-list:l0 level1 lfo1;text-autospace:none'><font
size=3 face="Times New Roman"><span style='font-size:12.0pt'>One shot
decisions from experience (as in Hertwig et al., 2004)<o:p></o:p></span></font></li>
<li class=MsoNormal style='mso-list:l0 level1 lfo1;text-autospace:none'><font
size=3 face="Times New Roman"><span style='font-size:12.0pt'>Repeated
decisions from experience (as in Barron & Erev, 2003)<o:p></o:p></span></font></li>
</ol>
<p class=MsoNormal style='text-autospace:none'><font size=3
face="Times New Roman"><span style='font-size:12.0pt'><o:p> </o:p></span></font></p>
<p class=MsoNormal style='text-autospace:none'><font size=3
face="Times New Roman"><span style='font-size:12.0pt'>We ran a large
“estimation study” with randomly selected problems (from the space
of problems described in the site) under each of these conditions. The data
are presented on the competition website. The basic task in the competition is
to predict choice behavior in a second study (the “competition
study”) that will examine a different set of problems to be selected randomly
from the same space of problems. Thus, we use the generalization criterion
methodology (see Busemeyer and Wang, 2000).<o:p></o:p></span></font></p>
<p class=MsoNormal style='text-autospace:none'><font size=3
face="Times New Roman"><span style='font-size:12.0pt'><o:p> </o:p></span></font></p>
<p class=MsoNormal style='text-autospace:none'><font size=3
face="Times New Roman"><span style='font-size:12.0pt'>To participate you will
have to send us a computer program (in SAS, Visual Basic or MatLab) that reads
the parameters of the choice problems and derives a prediction as an output. The
prediction is a probability that the risky option will be chosen. In each
competition, the program that minimizes Mean Squared Error between the
predictions and observed subject outcomes over the randomly chosen problems will
win.<o:p></o:p></span></font></p>
<p class=MsoNormal style='text-autospace:none'><font size=3
face="Times New Roman"><span style='font-size:12.0pt'><o:p> </o:p></span></font></p>
<p class=MsoNormal style='text-autospace:none'><font size=3
face="Times New Roman"><span style='font-size:12.0pt'>Ido will present the
basic idea of the competition and will be happy to answer questions in the
upcoming <a href="http://management.ucsd.edu/events/bdrm/">BDRM conference</a>
(April 25-26 in <st1:City w:st="on">San Diego</st1:City>), and in the Conference
on the <a href="http://cess.nyu.edu/Conference-April-27-28-2008/index.html">Method
of Modern Experimental Economics</a> (April 27-28 in <st1:place w:st="on"><st1:State
w:st="on">New York</st1:State></st1:place>).<o:p></o:p></span></font></p>
<p class=MsoNormal style='text-autospace:none'><font size=3
face="Times New Roman"><span style='font-size:12.0pt'><o:p> </o:p></span></font></p>
<p class=MsoNormal style='text-autospace:none'><font size=3
face="Times New Roman"><span style='font-size:12.0pt'>The winners will be invited
to be co-authors of a paper that summarizes the results (and will be submitted
to the special issue of <i><span style='font-style:italic'>J of Behavioral
Decision Making</span></i> on Decisions from Experience). In addition the
winner will be invited speakers in a special workshop that will be conducted in
<st1:place w:st="on"><st1:country-region w:st="on">Israel</st1:country-region></st1:place>
in December 2008 (expenses up to $2000 per winner will be covered). <o:p></o:p></span></font></p>
<p class=MsoNormal><font size=3 face="Times New Roman"><span style='font-size:
12.0pt'><o:p> </o:p></span></font></p>
<p class=MsoNormal><font size=3 face="Times New Roman"><span style='font-size:
12.0pt'>Best, Ido Erev, Eyal Ert and Al Roth<o:p></o:p></span></font></p>
<p class=MsoNormal><font size=3 face="Times New Roman"><span style='font-size:
12.0pt'><o:p> </o:p></span></font></p>
<p class=MsoNormal><font size=2 face=Arial><span style='font-size:10.0pt;
font-family:Arial'><o:p> </o:p></span></font></p>
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