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[Giovanni Parmigiani]

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            CALL FOR PAPERS -- CALL FOR TRAVEL FUNDING APPLICATIONS
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       INTERNATIONAL WORKSHOP ON MODEL UNCERTAINTY AND MODEL ROBUSTNESS
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               Bath, England, June 30th-July 1st or 2nd 1995
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The information below and future updates will be available at the
ISDS WWW site (http://www.isds.duke.edu).

GOALS OF THE WORKSHOP

In recent years, advances in statistical methodology and computing have made
available powerful modeling tools in a variety of areas. Along with the added
modeling flexibility, increasing attention is being paid to the relationship
between modeling assumptions and results. Debates on the effect of modeling
assumptions on crucial scientific and policy prediction, such as global
warming and the health impact of toxic waste, have reached the mass media.  

This international workshop on model uncertainty and model robustness,
blending methodology and case studies, will have the following goals: a) to
help elicit current issues and methods from a host of different application
areas and disciplines; b) to promote wider utilization of worthy practical
approaches and solutions developed in specific fields; c) to advance
understanding of the relative merits of existing tools and approaches; and d)
to identify directions for future methodological developments.

PROGRAM AND CALL FOR PAPERS

The program of the Workshop will include both talks and poster presentations. 
The talks will be invited, and will be organized in 7-9 sessions (depending on
the number of participants), each including 2 related presentations and one
discussion. Ample time will be allowed for floor discussion. No parallel
sessions will be planned, to encourage interaction among participants with
different interests and background. If there are enough talks for 9 sessions
the meeting will run from Friday morning June 30th to Sunday morning July 2nd,
otherwise Friday morning to Saturday afternoon July 1st (this will be decided
by early April). There will be a Workshop banquet Saturday evening July 1st.  

A poster session will take place the evening of June 30th, and will provide a
venue for discussing contributions that cannot be included in the daytime
sessions, and for further informal interaction. The poster session will be
open to contributors. We are actively seeking relevant posters.

WORKSHOP TOPICS

The foundational basis of the Workshop is eclectic -- we intend to contrast
Bayesian, frequentist, practical, and theoretical viewpoints.

* Overview of current directions in model uncertainty and robustness in model
  specification, in statistics and the physical and social sciences

* Model uncertainty and model robustness in specific areas (linear and
  generalised linear models, time series, imaging, spatial statistics, design 
  of experiments, meta-analysis, graphical models, survival analysis, decision
  modelling, risk analysis)

* Case studies, emphasising scientific and policy implications of different
  approaches for handling uncertainty in model choice
 
* Comparison of alternative methodological approaches to model uncertainty;
  foundations

* Practical implementation of inference under strong uncertainty about model
  choice; accounting for model uncertainty by hierarchical modelling; mixture
  modelling

* Variable selection problems. Deterministic and stochastic algorithms for
  searching model specification spaces; convergence issues

* Prior specification in Bayesian approaches. Diffuse and informative priors
  on structure and parameters; elicitation of priors and utilities; choice of
  scale on which to elicit/infer/predict; specification of non-standard
  covariance structures

* Methodology for model choice, information, and related topics. Bayes
  factors, their use, interpretation, computation and role in model building.
  AIC, BIC and other model specification criteria

* Model uncertainty and model criticism. Diagnostics and influence measures. 
  Cross-validation and predictive validation

* Computation/algorithms; software for illustrating the mapping from modelling
  assumptions to conclusions; graphical methods for assessing uncertainty in
  model choice; communication of model uncertainty to practitioners

* Modelling via exchangeability (E) and conditional independence (CI). 
  Uncertainty about E/CI assumptions

Further details about the Workshop program and participants will be made
available at the ISDS www site (http://www.isds.duke.edu) as soon as they
become available.  

REGISTRATION AND TRAVEL GRANT FOR US AND OTHER PARTICIPANTS

The Workshop organisers have applied for an NSF Group Travel Grant for
participants from the USA to attend the Workshop, and an EPSRC grant to
support the travel expenses of people from other countries. The EPSRC grant
includes modest support for non-UK participants to visit other places in the
UK, to work with colleagues and give seminars, while they are away from their
home institutions. Interactive registration and grant application forms will
be available at the ISDS www site (http://www.isds.duke.edu) in the immediate
future. Alternatively, email or paper versions of the forms can be requested
by contacting Giovanni Parmigiani (email gp at isds.duke.edu or fax
+1-919-684-8594).

PROCEEDINGS

A World Wide Web version of the proceedings of the Workshop will be created at
the ISDS www site. Papers will be made available as soon they are sent to us. 
Instructions for submissions will be posted. Alternatively, please contact
Giovanni Parmigiani.

WORKSHOP LOCATION

Bath is an elegant city of about 80,000 people, built to a unified Georgian
architectural plan in the eighteenth century; many of its buildings look today
much as they did 250 years ago. It is the only World Heritage City in the UK,
and offers amenities both urban (concerts, drama, films, a broad range of
international shops) and rural (good walking and interesting villages in the
beautiful countryside at the south end of the Cotswolds and beyond). The
Workshop will be held in an old courtroom that dates from the 1780s, with the
banquet taking place in a Georgian ballroom. Hotel accommodations range from
moderate to five-star, many in restored period buildings near the city center.
The city is about an hour and a half from Heathrow and Gatwick by car, and is
served by a good rail link to London (85 minutes away).  


	We look forward to seeing you at the Workshop.

	The Organizing Committee: 

	David Draper (University of Bath), 
	Giovanni Parmigiani (ISDS, Duke University), 
	Mike West (ISDS, Duke University).