Top Prize

[Terry Sejnowski]

New Scientist, 28 August, 1993, pp. 18-19

Physicist nets top prize for keeping building cooler

"Thomas Bayes theorem ... was used by an artifical neural
network -- a computer system that mimics the way the brain
works -- to win an international competition for predicting
energy consumption in a nominated building.  The competition,
called the "Great Predictor Shootout" took place in Atlanta,
Georgia, last June, organised by the American Society of 
Heating, Refrigeration and Airconditioning Engineers.

As a guide, the 21 entrants were given data about a four-storey
building in Texax, including the external air temperature, 
wind speed, humidity and sunlight levels for two months,
and the consumption of the electricity and hot and cold 
water for the previous four months.  The winning system,
devised by David MacKay, a physicist at the University of
Cambridge's Cavendish Laboratory, predicted the buildings's
energy to within 10%.  The runner up was accurate to 15%.

.. 'No matter how much you try to design a building,
there will always be effects you omit to allow for,'
comments Mackay."

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