[ACT-R-users] Ref for empirical tests of cognitive models by predicting task difficulty

[Bonnie E John]

Oh, I forgot to mention, Leonghwee's work is with CogTool-Explorer, which
predicts the errors of novice users, so it addresses Ken's desire for error
rates.
Of course, all the "normal" CogTool work predicts differences in task
execution time across tasks and UIs, as does all the Keystroke-Level Model
and GOMS work before and since CogTool. So if you want details of KLM
predictions, I'd start a The Psychology of Human-Computer Interaction by
Card, Moran and Newell and work forwards. That book has dozens of examples
with match to data.



From:	Ken Koedinger <koedinger at cmu.edu>
To:	act-r-users at actr-server.hpc1.cs.cmu.edu
Date:	04/28/2014 09:51 AM
Subject:	[ACT-R-users] Ref for empirical tests of cognitive models by
            predicting task difficulty
Sent by:	"ACT-R-users" <act-r-users-bounces at actr-server.hpc1.cs.cmu.edu>




I'm looking for references for the following statement and figure the
ACT-R community may have some:

"One way to empirically evaluate the quality of a cognitive model is to
test whether it can be used to accurately predict differences in task
difficulty."

I'm particularly interested in references to models that predict error
rates (but reaction time prediction is ok too) across a number of
related tasks.  Models that predict errors at steps in tasks and/or
specific strategy or error differences are even better.  One such
reference is our own tech report below -- see constraint C3 in Table 1.

Koedinger, K.R., & MacLaren, B. A. (2002).Developing a pedagogical
domain theory of early algebra problem solving.CMU-HCII Tech Report
02-100.[PDF
<http://pact.cs.cmu.edu/koedinger/pubs/Koedinger,%20McLaren%20.pdf>]

Others?  Including your own work?

Thanks!
Ken


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